Political beliefs shape more than opinions—they can distort how we interpret facts. Research shows that even those skilled in numerical reasoning are not immune to this bias. Recognizing how ideology influences thinking is the first step toward making more objective, evidence-based decisions.
The meaning of the word tribe
In recent years, the word tribe has taken on a broader meaning than the definition found in most dictionaries.
Today, it is frequently used to refer to any social group with a strong identity, such as national, religious, ethnic, or political.
It is this broader meaning of the word tribe that I am using here.
Sticking to tribal beliefs
One of the many things that holds tribes together is a common set of beliefs. Not surprisingly, numerous of these beliefs are false, and they can be remarkably resilient in the face of scientific evidence to the contrary.
Tribal affinity can warp our reasoning – tribal thinking – is one of the many forms of motivated reasoning.
Tribal thinking may seem irrational, but think about it for a moment. There is a perfectly rational reason why, at times, we put tribal considerations, whether consciously or subconsciously, ahead of logical thought.
Most false beliefs do not result in any direct harm to the individual holding them. They are benign.
It makes little or no difference to you personally whether you believe or not in, say, God, human-made global warming, or evolution. But it makes a massive difference if your belief goes against the dominant thinking of your tribe.
You may be seen as disloyal or even a traitor. In the past, you may have also put your life in danger, and today, you can quickly be expelled from your social circle or lose your job.
Giordano Bruno was burnt at the stake in 1600 in Italy by his own tribe (the Catholic Church) for his beliefs. These included that the earth orbited the sun and that the stars were distant suns surrounded by their own planets, and that these planets might foster life of their own.
It did not matter a jot to anyone whether this was true or not other than his tribe of course and they killed him for his beliefs which turned out to be true.
It is perfectly rational to adhere to your tribe’s beliefs despite evidence to the contrary. Given that those beliefs and tribal allegiance can run deep, doing so is often not even a conscious decision.
The Experiment Setup
Kahan and his team first assessed participants on two criteria:
- Their numerical reasoning ability.
- Their political leanings—categorized as left, right, or center.
Afterward, the participants were divided into two groups and given different problems to solve. While both experiments involved analyzing numerical data, one exposed a hidden cognitive trap.
Experiment 1: The Skincare Test
The first group was presented with a straightforward statistical problem: determining whether a new skin cream was effective based on clinical trial data.
- Half of this group received data suggesting the cream improved skin conditions.
- The other half received data indicating the cream made conditions worse.
The results were as expected: individuals with higher numerical reasoning scores were more likely to reach the correct conclusion, regardless of whether the data showed positive or negative outcomes. Political beliefs had no measurable effect on their ability to interpret the numbers correctly.
Experiment 2: The Gun Control Trap
The second group faced an identical statistical problem but with one key difference: the topic was politically charged. Instead of skincare, the data was framed around the effectiveness of a gun control initiative.
- One-half of this group received data suggesting gun control reduced crime.
- The other half received data suggesting gun control had no effect—or even increased crime.
The results took a dramatic turn here. Unlike in the skincare test, participants’ political affiliations heavily influenced their conclusions.
- Those with high numerical reasoning skills correctly interpreted the data only when it aligned with their pre-existing political beliefs.
- When the data contradicted their political stance, they were just as likely to misinterpret it as those with low numeracy skills.
A Surprising Discovery
One might assume that higher cognitive ability would protect against bias. However, the study revealed the opposite: the more numerate individuals were, the more susceptible they became to politically motivated reasoning.
Why? Because intelligence and analytical skills, rather than acting as neutral tools, were often deployed defensively—to reinforce pre-existing beliefs rather than to seek objective truth.
The Takeaway
This study challenges the notion that reason and logic alone can protect us from bias. Even the most numerically skilled individuals are not immune to the gravitational pull of political ideology.
The key lesson? It is crucial to be aware of our cognitive biases. If we are to think more critically and objectively, we must recognize that our beliefs can shape not only our opinions but also our perception of raw data.
Are Smart People Ruining Democracy? | Dan Kahan (source)
Why Smart People Believe Stupid Things | After SkoolIt has been assumed (very reasonably) for many years that enlightened self-government demands a science-literate citizenry.
Perversely, however, recent research has shown that all manner of reasoning proficiency - from cognitive reflection to numeracy, from actively open-minded thinking to science literacy - magnifies political polarization on policy-relevant science.
We need to recognize our biases and how they shape our understanding of facts. By questioning assumptions and considering different perspectives, we can make more informed decisions. When looking at data, focusing on accuracy rather than agreement helps us think more clearly and avoid being misled by personal or group beliefs.
Detailed Resources
- Big Think: Humanity solved the “trust paradox” by going tribal — and paid a horrific price by David R. Samson (2023)
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- Converse in Good Faith Be sincere, fair, open, and honest, regardless of the outcome
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- Pollution of the Global Information Ecosystem The contamination of information with false and misleading material
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