How Beliefs Shape Reasoning How political views influence the way we interpret data

Political beliefs shape more than opinions—they can distort how we interpret facts. Research shows that even those skilled in numerical reasoning are not immune to this bias. Recognizing how ideology influences thinking is the first step toward making more objective, evidence-based decisions.

The meaning of the word tribe

In recent years, the word tribe has taken on a broader meaning than the definition found in most dictionaries.

Today, it is frequently used to refer to any social group with a strong identity, such as national, religious, ethnic, or political.

It is this broader meaning of the word tribe that I am using here.

Sticking to tribal beliefs

One of the many things that holds tribes together is a common set of beliefs. Not surprisingly, numerous of these beliefs are false, and they can be remarkably resilient in the face of scientific evidence to the contrary.

Tribal affinity can warp our reasoning – tribal thinking – is one of the many forms of motivated reasoning.

Tribal thinking may seem irrational, but think about it for a moment. There is a perfectly rational reason why, at times, we put tribal considerations, whether consciously or subconsciously, ahead of logical thought.

Most false beliefs do not result in any direct harm to the individual holding them. They are benign.

It makes little or no difference to you personally whether you believe or not in, say, God, human-made global warming, or evolution. But it makes a massive difference if your belief goes against the dominant thinking of your tribe.

You may be seen as disloyal or even a traitor. In the past, you may have also put your life in danger, and today, you can quickly be expelled from your social circle or lose your job.

Giordano Bruno was burnt at the stake in 1600 in Italy by his own tribe (the Catholic Church) for his beliefs. These included that the earth orbited the sun and that the stars were distant suns surrounded by their own planets, and that these planets might foster life of their own.

It did not matter a jot to anyone whether this was true or not other than his tribe of course and they killed him for his beliefs which turned out to be true.

It is perfectly rational to adhere to your tribe’s beliefs despite evidence to the contrary. Given that those beliefs and tribal allegiance can run deep, doing so is often not even a conscious decision.

It has been assumed (very reasonably) for many years that enlightened self-government demands a science-literate citizenry.

Perversely, however, recent research has shown that all manner of reasoning proficiency - from cognitive reflection to numeracy, from actively open-minded thinking to science literacy - magnifies political polarization on policy-relevant science.

Credit: Dan Kahan

We need to recognize our biases and how they shape our understanding of facts. By questioning assumptions and considering different perspectives, we can make more informed decisions. When looking at data, focusing on accuracy rather than agreement helps us think more clearly and avoid being misled by personal or group beliefs.