an online book by David Gurteen
Predictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made, either qualitatively or quantitatively.
Credit: Wikipedia - unpredictabilityOnce upon a time, there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.” The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses … Continue reading The Story of the Chinese Farmer Alan Watts
Gurteen Knowledge Blog October 2, 2022, 14:40You are probably familiar with the VUCA acronym and that we live in a VUCA world. Volatility is where things change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse. Uncertainty is where it is impossible to predict the future or the correct course of action with any reliability. Complexity is where … Continue reading A Slight Modification to VUCA Volatility, uncertainty, confusion and ambiguity
Conversational leadership replaces the simplicity of monologue with the unpredictable vitality of dialogue. Conversation is open and fluid rather than closed and directive. To make it work, leaders need to cultivate the art of listening to people at all levels, and speaking with them directly and authentically. Credit: Boris Groysberg and Michael Slind Source: HBR: … Continue reading Conversational Leadership Replaces Monologue with Dialogue Boris Groysberg and Michael Slind, 2012
Gurteen Knowledge Blog July 11, 2023, 17:50The natural world is a highly interconnected and intricate system. We cannot label any event as entirely good or bad, as we cannot predict all the consequences. Something that may appear unfortunate at first may lead to unanticipated benefits later on, while something that seems positive may end up causing … Continue reading The Story of the Chinese Farmer It’s impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad
Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but we can help create it. We live in a complex socio-technical system — a VUCA world – a complex world that is volatile, uncertain, confusing, and ambiguous. One of the facets of a complex system is that it is inherently unpredictable, so these two quotations from Peter … Continue reading Predicting the Future Is a Fools’ Errand ** But we can help create it
The world is hyperconnected, fast-changing, and complex. It’s a VUCA world – increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. We live in a hyperconnected world that has led to increased complexity. The impact of complexity Increased complexity, in turn, has given rise to raised: Volatility is where things change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse. … Continue reading Our World Is Complex It is a VUCA world
