an online book by David Gurteen
Theory of Change (ToC) is a methodology or a criterion for planning, participation, adaptive management, and evaluation that is used in companies, philanthropy, not-for-profit, international development, research, and government sectors to promote social change. A Theory of Change of a social program defines its long-term goals and then maps backward to identify necessary preconditions.
Theory of Change explains the process of change by outlining causal linkages in an initiative, i.e., its shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes. The identified changes are mapped – as the "outcomes pathway" – showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others, as well as chronological flow and feedback loops. The links between outcomes are explained by "rationales" or statements of why one outcome is thought to be a prerequisite for another.
The innovation of Theory of Change lies (1) in making the distinction between desired and actual outcomes and (2) in requiring stakeholders to model their desired outcomes before they decide on forms of intervention to achieve those outcomes.
Theory of Change can begin at any stage of an initiative, depending on the intended use. A Theory of Change developed at the outset is best at informing the planning of an initiative. Having worked out a change model, practitioners can make more informed decisions about strategy and tactics. As monitoring and evaluation data become available, stakeholders can periodically refine the Theory of Change as the evidence indicates. A Theory of Change can be developed retrospectively by reading program documents, talking to stakeholders, and analyzing data. This is often done during evaluations reflecting what has worked or not in order to understand the past and plan for the future.
Credit: Wikipedia - theory_of_changeI have long argued, and repeated ad nauseam that in complexity we start journeys with a sense of direction we don’t try and achieve goals. We remain open to the evolutionary opportunities of the here and now, the present and the adjacent future states. Credit: Dave Snowden Source: On craft in strategy by Dave SnowdenPosts … Continue reading In Complexity We Start Journeys with a Sense of Direction Dave Snowden
Gurteen Knowledge Blog March 23, 2024, 10:29Change is constant and unpredictable in our complex world. Traditional linear approaches to managing change often fail to deliver results, leaving us struggling to adapt. The Vector Theory of Change, developed by Dave Snowden and described in my blook post “Navigating Change in a Complex World,” offers a solution. This … Continue reading Charting a New Course Dave Snowden’s Vector Theory of Change
With their rigid plans and fixed outcomes, traditional change management methods often struggle in today’s complex, unpredictable environments. Dave Snowden’s Vector Theory of Change offers a more adaptable solution by focusing on setting a broad direction (vector) rather than a specific goal. Introduction In our complex world, initiating successful change can be daunting. The traditional … Continue reading Navigating Change in a Complex World The Vector Theory of Change
What is meant by strategy and how do you develop a strategy in a complex world? Introduction I write elsewhere about open-adaptive strategy. Open Strategy is an approach to strategic planning where employees are given the opportunity to participate in the formulation and implementation of an organization’s strategy. Adaptive (or Agile) Strategy is an approach to … Continue reading Strategy ** Strategy is much more than a plan
