The Cynefin Framework A conceptual framework to help make decisions

We often rely on clear cause-and-effect reasoning when making decisions, assuming situations are stable and predictable. This breaks down in many real situations where uncertainty, complexity, and rapid change make analysis or best practice unreliable. The Cynefin framework offers a simple way to recognize context and respond appropriately.

The Cynefin framework is a conceptual framework created in 1999 by Dave Snowden to aid decision-making. It can also be described as a “sense-making device.” Cynefin is a Welsh word for habitat.

Cynefin comprises four decision-making contexts or “domains”: obvious, complicated, complex, chaotic, and a center of disorder.

The domains offer a “sense of place” for analyzing behavior and making decisions.

The domains on the right, obvious and complicated, are “ordered”: cause and effect are known or can be discovered.

The domains on the left, complex and chaotic, are “unordered”: cause and effect can be deduced only with hindsight or not at all.

Obvious

The obvious domain represents the “known knowns.” This means there are rules in place (or best practice), the situation is stable, and the relationship between cause and effect is clear: if you do X, expect Y.

The framework recommends “sense–categorize–respond”: establish the facts (“sense”), categorize, then respond by following the rule or applying best practice.

Complicated

The complicated domain comprises the “known unknowns.” The relationship between cause and effect requires analysis or expertise; there is a range of right answers.

The framework recommends “sense–analyze–respond”: assess the facts, analyze, and apply the appropriate good operating practice.

Complex

The complex domain represents the “unknown unknowns.” Cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect, and no right answers exist.

The framework recommends “probe-sense–respond”: conduct one or more small fail-safe experiments (probe), sense what happens, and respond.

Chaotic

In the chaotic domain, cause and effect are unclear. Events in this domain are too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response. Action – any action – is the first and only way to respond appropriately.

In this context, managers “act–sense–respond”: act to establish order; sense where stability lies; respond to turn the chaotic into the complex.

Resources

• Wikipedia: Cynefin Framework
• Harvard Business Review: A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making By Dave Snowden & Mary Boone
• Article: The Cynefin framework: applying an understanding of complexity to medicine by Ben Gray