Innovation can look like it happens overnight, but typically develops step by step. Change mostly comes from building on what already exists and stretching just beyond our current limits. The theory of the adjacent possible explains how progress happens by gradually expanding into new territory that’s within reach of where we are now.
In a world constantly shaped by innovation, evolution, and creativity, the theory of the adjacent possible offers a powerful lens for understanding how new ideas emerge and how change unfolds, not as sudden leaps into the unknown, but as incremental explorations into nearby possibilities.
Initially introduced by theoretical biologist Stuart Kauffman
and later popularized in innovation and cultural theory by thinkers such as Steven Johnson
, the “adjacent possible” maps out the space of what could happen next, given the current conditions of a system, whether that system is biological, technological, social, or cultural.
What Is the Adjacent Possible?
Imagine you’re standing in a room with several doors. Each door leads to a new room, and each new room has more doors. You can only move into rooms directly connected to where you are, not into a room several steps away that you can’t yet reach. Those next-door rooms are your adjacent possible.
At any given moment, a system has a limited number of real options for what it can become next. But every time a new option is explored, the space of future possibilities expands. As Steven Johnson puts it, the adjacent possible is a kind of evolving frontier, the shadow future that hovers just beyond the present.
Make a move and the position changes. New moves become possible, others disappear, and your opponent’s response changes the possibilities again. Each position opens up a new adjacent possible.
There is a clear overall goal: to win by checkmating your opponent’s king. But there is no predetermined route for getting there. You may have a strategy and a sense of direction, and you may anticipate several moves ahead, but you cannot simply plan the game and then execute that plan. The path emerges as you play.
Conversation works in a similar way. Each contribution changes the conversational situation. A question, an observation, a challenge, or a new perspective can open possibilities for thinking that were not available a moment earlier. What becomes possible next depends partly on what has just happened between us.
This also connects the adjacent possible with the Vector Theory of Change. We can have intent and a sense of direction without having a detailed plan for getting there. We act from where we are, see what happens, and respond to the possibilities that emerge.
Chess is only an analogy. It is a highly constrained system with fixed rules, known pieces, defined moves, and a clear objective. Human organizations, communities, and conversations are far more complex. We may not know all the possibilities available to us, and entirely new possibilities may emerge through our interactions.
We do not have to know the whole path. We need to pay attention to what has become possible from where we are now.
Why It Matters
The adjacent possible challenges the myth of radical, isolated breakthroughs. Instead, it emphasizes that:
- Innovation is cumulative: Big changes result from many small steps.
- Creativity is constrained, but dynamic: You can’t jump to the wildly new; you have to build from what exists.
- Possibility is not fixed: It expands with every step taken.
This framework helps think about how anything, from a business to a scientific theory to an artwork, develops over time. Let’s look at some concrete examples.
The Adjacent Possible in Action
1. Business & Innovation
Airbnb didn’t invent short-term stays or online platforms—those elements were already in place. But it stepped into a new adjacent possibility by combining them in a way no one had tried before: letting ordinary people rent their homes to strangers.
As user trust, payment systems, and mobile technology advanced, more adjacent possibilities opened: entire home listings, business travel options, curated experiences, and premium tiers like Airbnb Luxe.
Lesson: True innovation often comes from reconfiguring what’s already nearby, rather than inventing something entirely new.
2. Science & Technology
The development of CRISPR gene editing was not a lightning bolt. It became possible only after a chain of scientific discoveries, including the discovery of the DNA structure, the study of bacterial immune systems, and the development of molecular biology tools, each of which opened new avenues of inquiry.
By the time CRISPR arrived, the system was primed for it.
Lesson: Scientific progress unfolds by stepping into adjacent knowledge spaces, building on prior understandings.
3. Culture & Society
Social shifts like the legalization of same-sex marriage illustrate the adjacent possible in action. This milestone followed decades of civil rights activism, policy reform, changing media narratives, and evolving public sentiment.
Each prior step made the next one more thinkable, and eventually, more doable.
Lesson: Social change is not sudden; it’s a path-dependent exploration of newly viable futures.
Strategic Use of the Adjacent Possible
Understanding this concept isn’t just intellectually satisfying; it’s practically powerful:
- In leadership: Encourage your teams to look for what’s one step beyond today’s norm, rather than chasing moonshots that aren’t yet viable.
- In foresight: Use it to map plausible futures by identifying the near-term innovations that could unlock longer-term transformation.
- In design and creativity: Embrace constraints as tools that define where the next big idea might lie.
Every time we take a step into the adjacent possible, we expand the universe of what can be done next.
Connecting to the Vector Theory of Change
The adjacent possible reveals the expanding edges of what can be created next; the Vector Theory of Change shapes our journey through that space. By orienting around a flexible vector, rather than a fixed endpoint, we harness momentum to move steadily into new opportunities.
This approach encourages a series of small, safe-to-fail experiments that test emerging ideas just beyond today’s frontier. Each step validates which paths deepen our trajectory and enlarge the adjacent possible itself, feeding back fresh options for exploration.
The "Adjacent Possible" – and How It Explains Human Innovation | Stuart KauffmanThe Adjacent Possible and Conversational Leadership
The idea of the adjacent possible sits at the heart of Conversational Leadership.
If change happens through a series of small steps rather than giant leaps, then conversation becomes one of the most important ways those steps are discovered. Every conversation introduces new perspectives, questions, relationships, and possibilities that were not visible before. It expands what people can see, think, and do together.
Rather than trying to impose a predetermined future, Conversational Leadership creates the conditions in which people can collectively explore the adjacent possible. Through dialogue, they make sense of their situation, test ideas, challenge assumptions, and discover practical next steps that move them forward.
This is why conversation is not simply a way of communicating change. It is one of the primary ways change happens. Each conversation nudges a system in a particular direction, opening some possibilities while closing others. Over time, those small conversational shifts accumulate into larger patterns of innovation, learning, and transformation.
The adjacent possible helps explain where change comes from. Conversation helps explain how people move into it.
For a deeper exploration of how conversations themselves continually create new possibilities, see Conversations and the Adjacent Possible.
Understanding the adjacent possible helps us decide better where to focus our efforts. Instead of chasing distant goals, we can focus on the next steps that drive real progress. Moving steadily into nearby possibilities opens new paths for innovation, growth, and meaningful change.
Resources
- Book: The Origins of Order by Stuart Kauffman
- Article: What Is the Adjacent Possible?
- Article: Two Davids and the Adjacent Possible
- Article: Adjacent Possible (Research Paper)
Posts that link to this post
- Conversations and the Adjacent Possible How dialogue creates quiet shifts in what is possible
- Introduction: Rethinking Change Finding our way forward in a complex world
- Safe-to-fail Conversations Using conversation as a probe when the way forward is uncertain
- Strategy in a Complex World Strategy is much more than a plan
(Public Domain)Join one of my upcoming Knowledge Cafés or workshops and explore Conversational Leadership in practice.
Engage in thoughtful conversation, challenge assumptions, and connect with others working in knowledge, leadership, and organisational change.