The Knowledge Delusion We know far less than we think we do

As individuals, we know almost nothing compared to what we think we know. Our individual knowledge is mostly a delusion. We are ignorant of our ignorance.

We have built hugely complex societies and technologies through cumulative cultural evolution, but most of us don’t even know how a toilet works.

As individuals, we know almost nothing compared to what we think we know. Our individual knowledge is more than just an illusion; it is a delusion. If we thought deeply for one moment, we would realize we are ignorant of our ignorance.

Let’s explore this statement further with two examples.

The Motion of the Earth and the Sun

Take the belief that the Earth goes around the sun. You would think most people know it to be true. However, according to this article, a survey of 2,200 people in the United States conducted by the National Science Foundation in 2012 showed that as many as 26% of Americans think the sun goes around the Earth.

But let us say you know the Earth orbits the sun. Do you? Do you? Think about it. You don’t know.

You were most likely taught (told) that the Earth circles the sun, or you read about it as a child. And you have taken what you have been taught or read on faith. You trusted your teacher, your mother or father, or a book – an authority.

You have not examined the evidence that the Earth orbits the sun. It is a belief that you cannot explain or justify as true.

It could be argued that the 26% of Americans who believe that the sun goes around the Earth are thinking more clearly. Their belief is based on their sensory experience of observing the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.

Confronted with the fact that the Earth is spinning, this explains why the sun appears to move across the sky and is unlikely to faze them.

“The Earth spinning? What a crazy notion! I can’t feel it spinning. No, it is obvious that the sun orbits the Earth.”

It is not just the movement of the sun; there is precious little we can say we know other than from our sensory experiences or factual information, such as “Paris is the capital of France.”

By and large, we don’t know things; we trust what others say. We outsource our so-called knowledge to other people or authorities.

Human-Made Global Warming

Let’s take a more complex issue. Do you believe that human activity is causing the world to warm and, in turn, causing climate change (so-called anthropogenic global warming)?

For this argument, it does not matter whether you believe it or not, but you are likely to have a strong opinion one way or the other.

You have a scientific education; you understand the scientific method, are versed in the science of complexity, and have analyzed the available data.

Not only have you analyzed the data, but before doing so, you have looked at who funded the research and whether they might have an agenda; you have also carefully studied how it was collected, and you have searched for hidden biases in the research that might throw doubt on the results.

You have concluded that human activity is causing global warming or is not proven by the evidence available.

You have done all of this, haven’t you, to form your opinion?

No, of course, you haven’t.

If you believe global warming is human-made, you have only believed the scientists who have told you this. You trust the scientific community.

You may have thought a little deeper. You may have asked whether what the scientists are saying is logical and coherent. Does it make sense in the context of everything you know or believe you know about how the world works?

That’s good. But even if you have, it’s insufficient to say conclusively that global warming is real.

On the other hand, if you don’t believe in human-made global warming, it is likely that you do not trust the scientific community, or it could be that you don’t believe in the scientific method or that the scientific method is insufficient for drawing a conclusion. It could be that you think it’s a massive conspiracy.

But whether you believe it or not, you don’t actually know whether it is true or not.

Knowledge is Communal

Our beliefs are tribal. They are not so much based on our personal experience or even our analysis of the evidence but are based on our trust or distrust of other people and institutions who actually hold the knowledge. Knowledge is communal.

Credit: This post draws on the work of Steven Sloman and Philip Fernbach and their book The Knowledge Illusion: Why We Never Think Alone.

Detailed Resources

• Big Think: Humanity solved the “trust paradox” by going tribal — and paid a horrific price by David R. Samson (2023)
• Blog Post: Human Systems Are Almost Always Based On Trust by Dave Pollard (2023)
• HBR: Rethinking Trust by Roderick M. Kramer (2009)

Posts that link to this post

•  What Does Greta Thunberg Know About Global Warming? Diddly Squat! The Knowedge Delusion
•  Rethinking Our Beliefs It is not easy to change our beliefs
•  Collective Sense-making The Knowledge Café is a powerful collective sense-making tool
•  Ways of Knowing Ways of acquiring knowledge
•  Trust & Belief Formation Trust plays a critical role in forming our beliefs
•  Say So, If We Don’t Have an Opinion It's perfectly OK to say ‘Sorry, I don’t know’
•  Do We Really Know What We Think We Know? The knowedge delusion

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