Gurteen Knowledge Blog June 29, 2022, 09:31It is hard enough to predict what might happen next year, never mind in 100 years, but what about one hundred quintillion years (that’s 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 years)? This fantastic infographic Timeline of the Far Future produced by BBC Future attempts to do just that. Given that the universe is 13.8 billion … Continue reading Timeline of the Far Future Predicting the next hundred quintillion years
Imagine that it is 1920 and you have somehow been granted absolute power to predict the future. You happen to visit the mayor of Rotterdam and, during that time, you describe in vivid detail what is going to happen to his town over the next 25 years. Thus, in an otherwise perfectly normal working day, … Continue reading Saving Rotterdam From Destruction Arie de Geus (1999)
What Would Make a Better World? Personal Power ** Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter Predicting the future is a fool’s errand, but we can help create it. We live in a complex socio-technical system — a VUCA world – a complex world that is volatile, uncertain, confusing, and ambiguous. One of the facets … Continue reading Predicting the Future Is a Fools’ Errand ** But we can help create it
The Role of Human Agency Within Actor-network Theory Introduction: Complexity Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter We often construct false narratives in complex situations to make the past seem predictable. This habit, called retrospective coherence, hides the actual uncertainty of past events. Understanding this bias allows us to see complexity more clearly and avoid … Continue reading Retrospective Coherence in a Complex World How oversimplified narratives distort the past and hinder decision-making