Retrospective Coherence in a Complex World How oversimplified narratives distort the past and hinder decision-making

The Role of Human Agency Within Actor-network Theory

Introduction: Complexity

The world’s complexity makes the future hard to predict, yet we often assume the present was inevitable. This belief, known as retrospective coherence, oversimplifies history and overlooks uncertainty. Recognizing this bias helps us navigate complexity more clearly and make better decisions.

In today’s complex world, most of us accept that predicting the future with any certainty is nearly impossible. There are simply too many variables and too many interconnected factors at play.

What’s less often acknowledged, however, is that we also cannot claim the present was predictable in the past. These two ideas are inseparable—they are two sides of the same coin.

Think about it: if we agree that the future is unpredictable, we must also admit that what is happening today could not have been reliably foreseen. And yet, we routinely look back on past events and assume today’s outcomes should have been obvious.

For example, we might ask, “Why were the politicians so shortsighted? Why didn’t the generals not anticipate the counter-attack?” When things go wrong, we often blame decision-makers for failing to foresee the current situation, assuming they should have predicted the outcome if they had thought harder or planned better.

This tendency to impose a sense of inevitability on the past is surprisingly common. It even has a name: retrospective coherence.

Retrospective coherence is a term popularized by Dave Snowden, particularly within the framework of his Cynefin model, which is used to make sense of complexity. It refers to the human tendency to look back at events and construct a coherent narrative that makes the outcome appear predictable, even though it was far from evident at the time. In essence, retrospective coherence leads us to believe that “it had to happen this way” when, in reality, the past was far more uncertain and chaotic.

While this mental shortcut helps us simplify our understanding of complex events, it can also mislead decision-makers. By imposing order on the past, we risk underestimating the role of randomness, complexity, and unforeseen variables. Recognizing and avoiding this bias is critical for learning effectively from the past and managing uncertainty in the present.

Recognizing this cognitive bias can help us approach the past and present with greater humility. We must understand that the world’s complexity often defies straightforward explanations or predictions. This bias reminds us to be cautious about oversimplifying history and overly confident in what we believe we know about the future.

What is Retrospective Coherence?

We humans are natural storytellers. When we look back at a series of events, our minds instinctively try to connect the dots into a narrative that feels logical and inevitable. This process gives us comfort and a sense of control. Snowden argues that such coherence is constructed after the fact and does not reflect the messy, non-linear reality of how events actually unfolded.

Examples

• The Rise of a Tech Giant: When considering a company like Apple, we might imagine its inevitable success was driven by Steve Jobs’ vision and innovative leadership. Yet, at the time, Apple faced numerous failures (such as the Newton PDA) and significant competition. Their success was not a foregone conclusion, and randomness—like market timing and early loyal customers—played a key role.
• Financial Crises: After a financial collapse, analysts often present “obvious” signs that were supposedly ignored. Although hindsight makes these signals appear clear, they were lost amid noise, uncertainty, and other conflicting data at the time.

The core issue is that our brains filter out the chaos and uncertainty of the past and replace it with a narrative that suggests inevitability.

Why is Retrospective Coherence Dangerous?

1. It Misrepresents Complexity: Complex systems (such as economies, ecosystems, or human organizations) have multiple interdependent variables that interact unpredictably. Retrospective coherence reduces this complexity to a linear “cause-and-effect” story, leading to oversimplified conclusions.
2. It Hinders Learning: Seeing the present as having been predictable in the past prevents us from recognizing the uncertainty and complexity that existed at the time. This limits our ability to learn from those experiences and navigate unpredictable situations in the present. Instead, we risk oversimplifying events by focusing on “obvious” mistakes, as if the correct path had been clear all along.
3. It Creates Overconfidence: Thinking that the past was clear makes us believe the future will also be predictable. This false sense of confidence can result in poor decisions and blind spots.

How to Avoid Retrospective Coherence

To avoid falling into the trap of retrospective coherence, consider these practical steps:

• Acknowledge Uncertainty: Recognize that past events involved far more uncertainty than they now appear to have. Avoid constructing overly neat narratives that ignore randomness.
• Map Decisions Over Time: When analyzing past events, reconstruct the decisions made at each point based on the information available then. Avoid projecting current knowledge backward.
• Use Multiple Perspectives: Encourage different stakeholders to share their recollections of events. This helps reveal the complexity and ambiguity that existed instead of a single, oversimplified narrative.
• Scenario Planning: Instead of relying on one “inevitable” path, consider multiple plausible futures to reinforce the idea that the past and future are complex.
• Embrace Counterfactual Thinking: Imagine alternate outcomes to challenge the idea of inevitability. This highlights the role of chance and complexity in shaping results.

Conclusion

Retrospective coherence is a cognitive trap that smooths over the messiness of the past, making it appear predictable and ordered. While comforting, this mindset distorts our understanding of complexity and inhibits learning. By acknowledging uncertainty, examining decisions within their original context, and embracing alternative perspectives, we can develop a more realistic and nuanced view of the past.

In a world defined by unpredictability, resisting the allure of overly neat narratives is key to becoming better decision-makers and leaders. By recognizing retrospective coherence, we free ourselves from the false comfort of hindsight and open the door to genuine learning, adaptive thinking, and resilience in the face of complexity.

Recognizing the bias of retrospective coherence is essential for improving decisions in a complex world. Avoid oversimplifying the past or assuming predictability. Instead, focus on understanding uncertainty, questioning assumptions, and exploring multiple perspectives. These actions encourage learning, adaptability, and thoughtful responses to unpredictable challenges.

Resources

• Blog Post: Overcoming Bias Blog
• Wiki: Retrospective Coherence
• Blog Post: Retrospective Coherence and the Road Not Taken

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