In an unpredictable world, achieving complex goals through direct methods often fails. Traditional, rigid planning can fall apart under changing circumstances. Embracing obliquity—an indirect, adaptive approach—leads to success by allowing flexibility, learning from failures, and focusing on meaningful pursuits.
Life isn’t predictable. It’s full of surprises and detours. When we try to pursue our goals with rigid plans and a laser focus, we often end up frustrated. Plans fail, and in trying to control every detail, we lose sight of what matters.
Consider Google. It began as a PhD research project to improve online search, not as a grand plan to dominate advertising. Over time, it grew into what it is today. Google’s success came obliquely—not through a direct march to a predetermined vision, but by solving immediate problems and evolving.
This principle isn’t limited to business. John Stuart Mill, the 19th-century philosopher, observed that those who aim directly at happiness often miss it. Happiness, he argued, is a byproduct of meaningful pursuits: helping others, chasing ideals, or engaging in creative endeavors. When we fixate on happiness itself, it becomes elusive. But when we immerse ourselves in what matters, happiness often follows.
Obliquity reminds us that success isn’t about the destination but the journey—the values, relationships, and activities that enrich our lives. Goals are essential for direction, but how we approach them matters. The path is rarely straight, and clinging rigidly to plans often leads to failure. Adapting, learning, and embracing uncertainty are crucial.
Dave Snowden’s Vector Theory of Change aligns with this idea. In complex systems, big plans frequently fail, but small, adaptive shifts can guide outcomes over time. Obliquity emphasizes broader purposes and emergence, setting us up for success in ways rigid strategies cannot.
This might feel counterintuitive. We’re surrounded by stories of people achieving success through relentless focus. Yet these stories often omit the unexpected detours, failures, and serendipity that shaped their journeys. As the saying goes, “Life is what happens to us while we are making other plans.”
So, how do we apply obliquity? It means letting go of the illusion of control. It means embracing failure as a teacher and trusting the process, even when it feels uncertain. Success comes not from forcing outcomes but from staying open to change and learning as we go.
Obliquity encourages us to hold our values and vision firmly while remaining flexible about how we achieve them. Success—whether in reaching goals or finding fulfillment—isn’t a straight line but a winding path. If we trust that path, the destination will often be richer and more rewarding than we imagined.
Obliquity is a concept that challenges the conventional wisdom about how to achieve success and reach our goals. Economist John Kay popularized the term in his 2010 book “Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly.”
The central idea behind obliquity is that complex goals are often best achieved indirectly rather than through meticulous planning and a laser focus on the end objective. Kay argues that in a complex, unpredictable, and ever-changing world, taking an indirect, iterative, and adaptive approach is frequently more effective rather than charting a straight line to the target.
There are numerous examples of obliquity in action. Many successful companies did not start with a grand vision of what they would ultimately become. Instead, they solved a specific problem and iteratively evolved their products, strategy, and business model based on feedback and changing circumstances. For instance, Google started as a PhD research project to improve online search. Only later, almost as a byproduct, did advertising and other business opportunities emerge.
I never, indeed, wavered in the conviction that happiness is the test of all rules of conduct, and the end of life.
But I now thought that this end was only to be attained by not making it the direct end.
Those only are happy (I thought) who have their minds fixed on some object other than their own happiness; on the happiness of others, on the improvement of mankind, even on some art or pursuit, followed not as a means, but as itself an ideal end.
Aiming thus at something else, they find happiness by the way.
Similarly, achieving happiness is a common goal in our personal lives. However, research shows that people who pursue happiness as their primary aim often end up less happy. Fulfillment tends to come obliquely—as a side effect of engaging in meaningful pursuits, cultivating relationships, experiencing personal growth, and contributing to something larger than oneself. The happiest people are often not focused on happiness but on living according to their values and ideals.
The theory of obliquity does not imply that goals are unimportant or that planning is pointless. Quite the contrary, Kay emphasizes the critical importance of having high-level directional clarity about where you want to go. The distinction is that with complex goals in an uncertain world, the path is often winding, and the final destination may look different than originally envisioned. Rigid plans tend to fall apart upon contact with reality. Openness to serendipity, iteration, and adaptation is essential.
This oblique approach requires humility and the recognition that we cannot predict or control everything. It means holding our assumptions and strategies loosely while remaining firmly committed to our underlying values and vision. With obliquity, we embrace uncertainty, see failures as learning opportunities, and trust that as long as we keep putting one foot in front of the other in the right general direction, we will eventually arrive at a worthwhile destination, even if it’s not exactly the one we originally had in mind.
The idea of obliquity can feel counterintuitive in a world that celebrates people who seem to achieve wild success by pursuing their dreams with relentless, direct focus. However, an indirect adaptive approach is a more realistic path to success for many complex endeavors. As the aphorism goes, “Life is what happens to us while we are making other plans.” Often, it is only by letting go of our narrow attachment to specific outcomes that we can achieve the most significant breakthroughs. Obliquity reminds us to embrace the journey and trust that our ultimate destination will be all the more fulfilling, given that we have been shaped by unpredictable currents along the way.
Obliquity: How Complex Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly | John KayEmbracing obliquity can guide us through the uncertainties of the future. Focusing on flexible, adaptive approaches can help us better navigate complex goals. As we learn from our experiences and remain open to change, we move closer to fulfilling our ambitions in ways we might not have initially imagined.
Posts that link to this post
- The Power of Obliquity Why indirect paths often lead to better outcomes in a complex world
- The Vector Theory of Change Navigating change in a complex world
- Nurturing an Innovation Culture Allowing emergence, not imposing change
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