Strategy in a Complex World Strategy is much more than a plan

Strategy is often viewed as a plan to achieve a specific objective. But in a changing world, plans rarely work as expected. We need to view strategy as a flexible process that begins with the present, adapts to change, and evolves through incremental steps and a shared understanding.

In a complex and unpredictable world, strategy assumes a broader and more nuanced meaning than simply creating a plan to achieve a specific goal.

Traditionally, strategy has been associated with an organized path from Point A to Point B. Yet, this approach often fails in real-life situations, particularly in dynamic and complex environments.

Strategy: More Than a Plan

Strategy is much more than a plan.

A plan supposes a sequence of events that allows one to move with confidence from one state of affairs to another.

Strategy is required when others might frustrate one’s plans because they have different and possibly opposing interests and concerns…

The inherent unpredictability of human affairs, due to the chance events as well as the efforts of opponents and the missteps of friends, provides strategy with its challenge and drama.

Credit: Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A history

“Strategy is much more than a plan,” Lawrence Freedman explains. While a plan lays out a series of steps to achieve a specific outcome, a strategy anticipates that those steps may face disruptions and challenges.

In a complex world, actions can be undermined by unforeseen obstacles, competing interests, or even allies whose missteps unintentionally derail progress. Freedman highlights the unpredictability of human affairs as a defining characteristic of strategic thinking.

Strategy, therefore, is about managing the unpredictable rather than enforcing rigid control over future events. In this sense, it involves an ongoing recalibration process rather than adherence to a single plan.

This idea aligns with Roger Martin’s assertion that “a plan is not a strategy.” In complex environments, where “little goes to plan,” developing a strategy requires a flexible mindset that doesn’t rely on achieving a fixed end state but instead involves continuous adaptation. Strategic goals are not necessarily abandoned but approached through evolving tactics that respond to the environment. As situations change, strategic thinking reappraises and modifies the means and, if necessary, the ends.

In a complex world, little goes to plan

Strategy is rarely a straight line to a pre-defined destination. Instead, it unfolds through unexpected twists, evolving as new challenges and opportunities emerge. Lawrence Freedman highlights this dynamic nature, demonstrating how strategy necessitates constant reassessment and adaptation, thereby shaping both the journey and the ultimate goals along the way.

Strategy is often expected to start with a description of a desired end state, but in practice there is rarely an orderly movement to goals set in advance.

Instead, the process evolves through a series of states, each one not quite what was anticipated or hoped for, requiring a reappraisal and modification of the original strategy, including ultimate objectives.

Credit: Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A history

Starting with the Present, Not the Future

The sciences of complexity change our perspective and thinking. Perhaps, as a result we should, especially in management, focus more attention on what we are doing than what we should be doing.

Following the thinking presented by the most advanced scientific researchers, the important question to answer is not what should happen in the future, but what is happening now?

Credit: Esko Kilpi

In traditional strategic planning, the focus is often on the future, beginning with a vision of where an organization wishes to be. However, Esko Kilpi, reflecting on insights from complexity science, suggests that “we should start with where we are now, not where we wish to be in the future.”

This perspective argues that rather than envisioning an idealized future and working backward, strategy should be rooted in a deep understanding of current conditions. By concentrating on what is actually happening now, we gain insights into the immediate opportunities and challenges we face, allowing us to respond with actions grounded in the reality of the present rather than the idealism of the future.

Kilpi’s emphasis on starting with the present reflects a shift in strategic thinking driven by advances in complexity science. In a complex world, conditions continually change, and each decision or action somehow alters the landscape.

Focusing on present circumstances allows us to take incremental steps forward, refining our approach in real-time. This is especially relevant in management, where an adaptive approach recognises that setting rigid future goals can lead to missed opportunities and misalignment with the evolving environment.

Exploring the Evolutionary Potential of the Present

Knowledge Management should be focused on real, tangible intractable problems not aspirational goals.

It should deal pragmatically with the evolutionary possibilities of the present rather than seeking idealistic solutions.

Credit: Dave Snowden

Dave Snowden builds on the idea of focusing on the present by advocating for a pragmatic approach to strategy, which “should deal pragmatically with the evolutionary possibilities of the present rather than seeking idealistic solutions.”

Instead of building strategy around idealised future states, Snowden encourages us to work with what is actually happening now—what he refers to as “real, tangible intractable problems.” This kind of thinking avoids speculative planning and focuses on practical actions grounded in the current context.

This approach aligns with Snowden’s Vector Theory of Change, which emphasises direction and momentum over fixed goals. Rather than setting a distant endpoint and working backward, we assess our current position, determine a desirable direction, and take steps that move us along that path. Change becomes a matter of navigating from the present, not enforcing a predetermined future.

The Vector Theory of Change

Navigating change in a complex world

Traditional change management methods, with their rigid plans and fixed outcomes, often struggle in today's complex, unpredictable environments. Dave Snowden's Vector Theory of Change offers a more adaptable solution by focusing on setting a broad direction (vector) rather than a specific goal.  Continue reading

It also resonates with the concept of the Adjacent Possible, which highlights how current conditions shape what is achievable next. Every step we take opens up new possibilities that were previously inaccessible. Strategic action, then, is about identifying what is possible now—and what might become possible next—without attempting to leap too far ahead.

Exploring the Adjacent Possible

Understanding change as a series of nearby moves

Innovation can look like it happens overnight, but typically develops step by step. Change mostly comes from building on what already exists and stretching just beyond our current limits. The theory of the adjacent possible explains how progress happens by gradually expanding into new territory that’s within reach of where we are now. Continue reading

Together, these perspectives support an adaptive, evolutionary mindset, where each decision is part of an unfolding process. By responding to what is real and emergent in the present, rather than working from fixed goals, organisations can act more effectively in complex and unpredictable environments.

The Role of Open-Adaptiveness in Strategy

Open Strategy is an approach to strategic planning where employees are given the opportunity to participate in the formulation and implementation of an organization’s strategy.

Adaptive (or Agile) Strategy is an approach to strategy that is characterized by adaptive planning, early adoption, evolutionary development, continuous improvement and a rapid and flexible response to change. The formulation and implementation of strategy are not separate sequential phases but go hand in hand.

Open, Adaptive Strategy

Make employees partners in the strategy process

Strategic planning is evolving, with new approaches that are more inclusive and adaptable. Traditional, closed strategies limit employee involvement, leading to blind spots and disengagement. Organizations can create more effective strategies through broader participation and continuous adjustment by adopting open and adaptive strategy approaches. Continue reading

In this complex context, an open-adaptive strategy—a blend of open and adaptive approaches—becomes particularly valuable. Open Strategy involves broad participation, where employees across levels are invited to contribute to the development and implementation of strategy. This participatory approach generates diverse ideas and insights, creating a shared commitment to adapt as needed.

Adaptive Strategy, meanwhile, emphasizes rapid response to change, integrating planning and implementation into a continuous process. In an open-adaptive framework, the organization evolves in response to both internal input and external changes, adjusting its course as new information emerges.

This fusion of open and adaptive approaches acknowledges the unpredictable nature of complex environments and leverages collective intelligence to navigate them. It is an approach well-suited to a world where “the process evolves through a series of states, each one not quite what was anticipated or hoped for,” as Freedman notes. By maintaining an adaptable stance and welcoming input from diverse perspectives, an organization is better equipped to address the challenges of complexity and respond to unexpected developments.

Small Actions and Incremental Change

Building on this idea, Dave Snowden emphasizes the value of “change through small actions in the present.” In complex systems, minor adjustments can have ripple effects that significantly shape the environment over time. This approach contrasts with the conventional strategy of implementing large-scale changes to achieve specific outcomes.

Instead, by focusing on small, manageable actions that address immediate issues, organizations can experiment and learn in real-time, making incremental adjustments that enhance their overall resilience and adaptability.

This incremental approach not only makes strategy more manageable but also reduces the risk of failure associated with larger, more disruptive changes. By embedding strategic thinking into everyday actions and decisions, organizations can evolve organically, leveraging the evolutionary potential of each step to move toward a broader vision without the rigidity of fixed goals.

Strategy as an Ongoing Dialogue with Complexity

In a complex world, an effective strategy goes beyond traditional planning. It becomes a continuous dialogue with the environment, an adaptive journey rather than a fixed destination. As Freedman and Martin point out, strategy is not about following a precise map, but about navigating uncertainty and adjusting to changing conditions.

Starting with the present, as Kilpi suggests, helps us respond to what is actually happening rather than what we hope will happen. Small, pragmatic actions, as Snowden recommends, allow us to explore possibilities without committing to rigid outcomes. The open-adaptive approach combines broad participation with flexibility, helping organizations stay grounded and resilient in the face of complexity.

Strategy in this context is not about controlling the future; it is about shaping it. It is about evolving with the present. By staying responsive and acting incrementally, organizations can build strategies that are both practical and sustainable over time.

We need to treat strategy as a living process, not a fixed plan. By paying attention to what is happening now, we can act, learn, and adjust together. Each small step helps us understand more and move in better directions as the world around us continues to change.

Resources

• Blog Post: Towards the idea that complexity IS a theory of change by Chris Corrigan
• Blog Post: Change through small actions in the present by Dave Snowden