an online book by David Gurteen
Uncertainty or incertitude refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science.
Credit: Wikipedia - uncertaintyInventing the future requires giving up control. No one with a compelling purpose and a great vision knows how it will be achieved. One has to be willing to follow an unknown path, allowing the road to take you where it will. Surprise, serendipity, uncertainty and the unexpected are guaranteed on the way to the … Continue reading Inventing the Future Requires Giving Up Control George Land
What men really want is not knowledge but certainty. Credit: Bertrand Russell Comment: Bertrand Russell had a lot to say about certainty. See Lib QuotesPosts where this quotation is embedded Carpe Diem – Seize the Day Seize the day everyone Collective Sense-making The Knowledge Café is a powerful collective sense-making tool Complex Responsive Processes Ongoing patterns of interaction … Continue reading What Men Really Want Is Not Knowledge but Certainty Bertrand Russell
Let go of certainty. The opposite isn’t uncertainty. It’s openness, curiosity and a willingness to embrace paradox, rather than choose up sides. The ultimate challenge is to accept ourselves exactly as we are, but never stop trying to learn and grow. Credit: Tony Schwartz Posts where this quotation is embedded Carpe Diem – Seize the Day … Continue reading Let Go of Certainty Tony Schwartz
Gurteen Knowledge Blog April 11, 2021, 15:40The US Intelligence Community has published a report entitled Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World. The report has been published every four years since 1997 and assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. It makes … Continue reading A More Contested World A report on the future by the US Intelligence Community
Once upon a time, there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.” The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses … Continue reading The Story of the Chinese Farmer Alan Watts
Gurteen Knowledge Blog October 2, 2022, 14:40You are probably familiar with the VUCA acronym and that we live in a VUCA world. Volatility is where things change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse. Uncertainty is where it is impossible to predict the future or the correct course of action with any reliability. Complexity is where … Continue reading A Slight Modification to VUCA Volatility, uncertainty, confusion and ambiguity
The Global Information Ecosystem Uncertainty ** Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter Information pollution is the contamination of information with false and misleading material. Pollution of the info-ecosystem The quality of the information in our global information ecosystem is paramount. To reduce uncertainty and make good sensemaking and decision-making, we need to trust the … Continue reading Pollution of the Global Information Ecosystem The contamination of information with false and misleading material
Pollution of the Global Information Ecosystem Filter Bubbles, Epistemic Bubbles and Echo Chambers Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter Uncertainty refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. Uncertainty refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information. The importance of high-quality information To make good decisions, envisage, or plan a future, strategize, and act … Continue reading Uncertainty ** Uncertainty refers to situations involving imperfect or unknown information
Our World Is Hyperconnected We Humans Are Complex Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter In our hyperconnected world, complexity has surged, leading to heightened volatility, uncertainty, and ambiguity. This increased complexity poses significant challenges in predicting outcomes, planning for the future, and understanding global events. We live in a hyperconnected world that has led … Continue reading Our World Is Complex It is a VUCA world
Listen with the Intent to Understand Don’t Give Advice Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter Don’t Discourage Dissent: Many view conflict as bad and try suppressing it, but disagreement is healthy. It is an opportunity to have a meaningful conversation, and we should encourage it. FUD – fear, uncertainty, and doubt. No, not the … Continue reading Don’t Discourage Dissent Fear, uncertainty and doubt are good things
