Abstract The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the ‘wisdom of crowds’, has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within … Continue reading Aggregated Knowledge From a Small Number of Debates Outperforms the Wisdom of Large Crowds Joaquin Navajas, Tamara Niella, Gerry Garbulsky, Bahador Bahrami and Mariano Sigman (December 2018)
Hugo Mercier’s central question is: ‘Do we discuss with each other just to be right, or to actually reason with one another?’ Hugo states that we discuss to persuade others and to judge arguments. By listening to what others have to say, we can evaluate our own thoughts and get to know if we or … Continue reading How and Why We Reason Hugo Mercier (2015)
Gurteen Knowledge Blog May 7, 2021, 15:34I recently came across a fascinating theory concerning the evolution of human reason known as “The Argumentative Theory of Human Reason”. However, I prefer to use the term “theory of social reasoning” or simply “social reasoning”. The theory proposes that the primary function of reason is not to improve our … Continue reading Social Reasoning The Argumentative Theory of Human Reason
Knowledge and Information ** The Knowledge Delusion Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter The argumentative theory of reasoning proposes that reason did not evolve to help us to reason individually but to reason together – in other words, socially. Reasoning is generally seen as the process of thinking about something to help us come … Continue reading The Argumentative Theory of Human Reason We did not evolve to reason individually but to reason socially
The Perils of Binary Bias ** Introduction: Practicing Conversational Leadership Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter We often see those with different beliefs as adversaries, which limits our ability to recognize the potential for friendship and understanding. Conversational Leadership encourages open dialogue across diverse perspectives, helping us build empathy and shared insights to navigate … Continue reading We Are Not Enemies but Friends—mostly Finding understanding by conversing with those who think differently
Psychological Safety ** Introduction: Small Group Conversations Close Pop-up all posts in this chapter The wisdom of crowds is the concept that large groups of people are collectively smarter than individuals regarding problem-solving, decision-making, and predicting. However, the method can be improved with the wisdom of crowds of crowds. In the concept of the wisdom … Continue reading Wisdom of Crowds of Crowds Crowds within a crowd outperform ‘wisdom of the crowd’